The first half of 2026 delivered a strong but uneven ride for investors. Global equities climbed roughly 10-11%, with Japan a standout at +17% and emerging markets surging around 22% on the back of AI-hardware exposure in Taiwan, South Korea and China. Much of the gain was driven by resilient corporate earnings and continued AI-related capital spending, though US tech names saw a bumpier, more selective rotation as the half progressed.
Elsewhere, the picture was more turbulent. The Federal Reserve, under new Chair Kevin Warsh, struck a notably hawkish tone on inflation, keeping Treasury yields elevated. The US dollar strengthened while the yen touched a 40-year low, and commodities whipsawed — oil fell sharply in Q2 as Middle East risk premiums faded, while gold and silver gave back earlier gains.
Heading into H2, major research houses are largely constructive but selective. J.P. Morgan’s mid-year outlook, titled “The tug of war continues,” points to a continued upward path for equities alongside higher yields, a bullish dollar and modestly wider credit spreads. Goldman Sachs has maintained a pro-risk stance, having forecast an 11% global equity return over a 12-month horizon, while flagging China’s growth near 4.8%. BlackRock’s outlook centers on its “Micro is macro” theme, highlighting over $800 billion in AI-related capital expenditure as the dominant market driver, and favouring shorter-duration bonds and active credit selection over long-dated debt.
The common thread: normalising rate expectations, continued regional and asset-class dispersion, and a shift toward active, selective positioning rather than broad market exposure.
Whichever of these paths plays out in the second half of the year, Lochburn Capital remains focused on connecting our intermediary partners with a broad range of investment opportunities through our network of product providers and capital markets partners. From private credit and structured products to ETFs and capital raising support, we aim to provide access to a diverse range of solutions that may be appropriate across a variety of market conditions, helping our partners navigate an evolving and often fragmented investment landscape.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal, tax or other advice, or a recommendation to purchase or sell any security or investment. It is intended solely for qualified professional investment intermediaries outside of the UK, USA or other restricted jurisdictions. You should not rely on this content in making any investment decision but should obtain relevant and specific professional advice. Lochburn Capital International Limited accepts no responsibility for any loss or damage arising directly or indirectly from reliance on this content.
Sources: J.P. Morgan Global Research (Mid-Year Market Outlook, Jul 2026), Goldman Sachs Research, BlackRock Investment Institute (2026 Midyear Global Outlook), Saxo Bank half-year report (Jun 30, 2026).